ONE OF THE WORST GLACIAL FLOODS OF RECENT TIMES
Recent glacial flood disaster in Nepal has been described as one of the worst of its kind in recent history. Total casualties so far have been placed at 750 (734 in Nepal and 16 in Tibet) with over 3000 people still reported as missing. A large number of homes, roads, villages and public infrastructure have been swept away even though nearly 4000 people have been rescued.
What is intriguing that credible details are still not available on losses and damages on the Tibetan side. There is also lot of concern over secrecy maintained by the Chinese Govt on the issue. Serious apprehensions have been expressed at hydrological and geological alterations in the natural ecology of the Tibetan region, identifying it as the possible trigger for the entire mishap. While it is not fair to attribute malicious intent on part of anyone, a larger human indifference towards nature is certainly responsible for such a disaster. Besides, unless there is collective mending of approach on this issue, we may continue to face more catastrophes that may increasingly get more devastating over time.
There have also been concerns at lack of any prior alert or warning from the Chinese side despite its massive infrastructure for prior detection for such natural disasters. But it appears more plausible that none got adequate time for the same. Yet it would be naive to assume that something of this nature was entirely unanticipated given the large assault on nature in the region. Hence, we need to examine the entire issue dispassionately if we are genuinely committed to averting such disasters.
NEED FOR A NEW APPROACH
Whole world needs to build greater sensitivity and a more sustainable equation with nature. A larger ambience of trust and collaboration among communities and nations is critical in this direction. This requires far more serious approach on part of all stakeholders and leaders in all sectors of democratic world.
China's overall construction activity as well as its massive infrastructure invites awe and admiration at one level. But it has also generated challenges and threats at another level. Ecology from mountainous regions of Himalaya to Central Asia and Pacific Oceans to South China Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean appear severely under stress by China’s Herculean projects and strategies.
No amount of moral talk is going to alter outlook and approach of China or for that matter any other actor. And China cannot even be faulted over such an approach.
Indians particularly need to respect ecology in their part of the territory far better. But they cannot escape consequences of the Chinese approach or Chinese activities in Tibet and seas or oceans around Indian territory. Following particularly amplify the situation.
BREAK-NECK PACE OF CONSTRUCTION IN ECOLOGICALLY FRAGILE TIBET:
Breakneck construction in ecologically fragile Tibet is not only an environmental tragedy but also a clear strategic signal by China that does not care for Tibet’s land and people or others impacted by the same. Such ruthless strategic psyche of China has evolved over millennia. Its rulers have perennially treated other nations and even sections of their own people as well as ecology as expendable variables in larger in pursuit of their own strategic designs or power objectives.
Tibet’s cultural identity, pristine mountain systems and waterways have been substantially erased. Beijing appears determined to demonstrate that Tibet's landscape, despite its mountainous terrain is like any other Chinese province. More than that it is determined to ensure unrestricted exploitation of vast water and glacial reservoirs, forest resources and rich minerals and commodities for luxury and wellbeing of people in the Han mainland. Its phenomenal engineering, economic, technological, military and R&D capacities help pursue this agenda unhindered. A degree of natural disasters in this region shall be unavoidable outcome in this process. yet it does not impact Chinese mainland and hence it appears irrelevant.
Following are a sample of some of the Chinese projects that pose significant risks to India and Nepal, besides Tibet:
1. Plateau Drone R&D Centre near Mount Everest: designs UAVs for high‑altitude warfare, logistics, surveillance above 4,000 meters. It has potential to wreak havoc on Nepal & India.
2. Detailed risk assessment is unknown for China's AI-powered mega-dams like $170 billion Yarlung Zangbo. This is designed to generate 300 billion kWh annually, feeding AI data centers under the “East Data, West Computing” plan.
3. Medog Hydropower Station, $165 billion “Project of the Century” in Tibet’s Great Bend canyon, is expected to triple the output of the Three Gorges Dam but it threatens water security for 1.8 billion people, especially Indians, downstream.
Several of the Chinese projects in Tibet threaten an ecological collapse, including Himalayan rivers in long run. Mega‑dams in Tibet can potentially alter monsoon flows & water security of whole of South Asia. Beijing is clearly building a coercive strategic leverage against India by controlling water systems.
DISRUPTION IN GLOBAL OCEAN AND MOUNTAIN SYSTEMS LEAVE IMPACT BEYOND NATIONAL BOUNDARIES
But it is not the Tibet alone where China's growth, development and strategic approach threatens larger global economic balance. China has been artificially extracting land from sea and oceans through such technologies that may impact lands, seas and oceans way beyond its own territories. Global ocean and mountain systems are one common continuous entities that go beyond national and geographical boundaries. Of course much deeper wisdom and knowledge can help us negotiate with these far better.
Over the last few decades China has heavily invested in deep sea research and innovation in advanced ship building. Probably, it possesses far deeper knowledge in a variety of dimensions of marine technologies. With the world’s largest armada of deep‑sea research and mining vessels, China appears all set to dominate seabed mining. On any given timing, a fleet of such vessels have been spotted in the Indian Ocean over the last 4-5 years. Our wider ignorance and relative technological constraints make it far easier for China to mine seabed in and around our territorial waters in a manner that marine resources of the region can be exploited for the wellbeing of the Chinese state and simultaneously our comprehensive security may face a threat.
Reckless extraction of deep-sea resources can inflict such calculated impact on ecology that can destabilize lands and annihilate people silently but irreversibly. Ecological fall out in certain contexts may be comparable to nuclear attacks in the region.
Blaming China or lamenting the issue is no solution. Success of their model has presented a challenge. India has been far too deeply caught in populist, divisive dynastic politics of entitlements. Crushing meritocracy retards excellence and innovation and undermines advancements on parameters of national power. We need to build a more scientific strategy of statecraft- encompassing all dimensions of governance, security, economics, military and technology, and suitable capacities to pursue these.
INDIA NNEDS SERIOUS MODIFICATIONS IN ITS STRATEGY AND APPROACH
Today, China is able to go ahead with it approach and strategy due to absence of any adequate countervailing challenge. While, India cannot afford to confront or antagonize China on its own but nothing prevents it from optimizing its own strengths and capacities. It is sheer under performance of the world's largest democracy and most populous nation, on most parameters of governaance and national power, that has generated this imbalance.
We cannot afford to export best brains & invest only <0.7% of GDP on R&D, compared to China’s 2.4%. Over 70% of critical tech components in India are imported. Strategic foresight is hated & best brains & committed souls are consciously crushed by cartels within our own bureaucratic, legal-judicial systems. Our institutions appear too fragile, often pursuing governance as theatric ritual.
India’s political, corporate, bureaucratic & judicial elite must re-discover integrity, foresight, courage & responsibility. Otherwise, we shall be leaving behind a nation that is too vulnerable to external shocks & internal turmoil; Incapable of managing its own destiny & shaping global strategic balance.
China’s engineering feat, national power and strategic psyche, amidst Trumpian tacticalism and India’s deficient statecraft threatens larger global balance. It seriously erodes not only our own long-term security but several other nations.
This generation must not become a moot spectator to decline of India as a civilisation.
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