PM Modi Better Placed to Deliver Now
At a time when cynicism is rising over
the declining governance capacities of democracies and appalling world-wide
crisis of leadership, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made the most statesmanlike statements
following his emphatic electoral victory in the just concluded parliamentary
elections. Spelling out a vision for stronger, harmonious, cohesive and
inclusive India, he was magnanimous towards his political opponents and
repeatedly assured minorities of equitable and access to opportunities.
Challenges are huge and so are expectations
from PM Modi in his second term. Despite impressive growth over the last few
decades, democratic India has been comprehensively outperformed by a
politically communist China with capitalist economy on virtually every
parameter of governance. Its five times bigger GDP, stronger public
infrastructure, bigger share of global markets for its goods, better access to
resources and superior technological advancements were considered a proof of
governance deficiencies of democracy. Its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative is
yet another indicator of its far superior economic and technological prowess. PM
Modi with a strong majority in Parliament and most major states is well placed
to embark on structural reforms to build a stronger governance capacity to
pursue the vision that he has spelled out.
India is one of the most unequal
societies in the world. Oxfam rated it at 145 out of a total of 157 in its
Global Equality index. History has demonstrated that unmitigated inequality has
been the surest route towards disaster and decimation for even the most stable
societies. No other economy of India’s size ever had such large number of
billionaires – nearly 200 or more. The phenomenon is suspected to be the outcome
of not only industry and enterprise but also unrestrained favouritism. There
are serious structural imbalances and flaws in market economies in any case.
Even the most powerful democracies lack the requisite capacity to regulate
markets with their policies often coming under backdoor influence.
Deficient technical capacity of state
to regulate markets beyond a certain point has been consistently highlighted
over the years by economists varying from George Stigler to Jeffry Sachs in Western
economies. These have often been confirmed by reports various Congressional
Research Committees of the world’s most powerful democracy. One can only
imagine situation in other parts of the world, where governance capacities have
far more constraint.
India’s additional share of problems
include the worst record of bad corporate debts among the top 10 economies which
as per reserve Bank of India’s own admission early this year amounted to US
$190 billion. Amnesty for wilful corporate defaulters cannot be justified nor
will it discipline the industry. An ambience of fear can certainly deter
legitimate corporate risks. There is a need to go beyond routine market reforms
and restructure corporate governance norms to encourage leaders in this sector to
partner in governance process through creation of jobs and generation of wealth
through greater innovation and competitiveness.
Elections 2019 will go down as a trend
setter in another aspect. For the first time in electoral history of India, national
security emerged the focal point of campaign. The 1971 war or 1999 Kargil
conflict may have had an impact on the outcome of polls. However, superior security
strategy or war-making capacity of a political establishment never came in
contention.
Modi’s bold gambit of air bombing of terror camps deep
inside Pakistan emerged a major poll plank. The air strikes will certainly have
a deterrent on Pakistan based terror groups but the security threat to India
from the hostile neighbour is too complex to be resolved soon. Protracted proxy
war in Kashmir has reached a different level with radicalisation of sections of
local youth. Restraint and discipline of Indian security forces have kept the situation
under control but continuation such turmoil generates its own momentum,
alienating local population in the process. War theorists keep coming up with
newer nomenclatures like “diffused war”, “irregular War” or “hybrid war” etc to describe such conflicts.
Nevertheless, capacity to address such conflicts efficiently is missing in security
establishments of even the most powerful states.
It is well known that a specialised
armed containment of insurgency is only a critical component of eventual
solution, which is efficient, dynamic and acceptable governance, going well
beyond the theatre of conflict. The government shall have to marshal all its
capacities to not merely overhaul governance structure to make it more
responsive but also use its global influence to push for de-radicalisation of
Pakistani state and society. It may appear to be too far-fetched but probably
it is essential for an enduring peace in Kashmir in particular and South Asia
in general.
Universal access to a dependable
healthcare regime is the biggest challenge that India needs to address to
pursue its dream of great power status. At present, the country ranks 125 in
WHO’s life expectancy index with half of the world’s wasted children being in
India. The situation is extremely worrying as it erodes the dividends that one
expects from a youthful population.
Ironically, healthcare is still considered
an act of charity in the country, whereas it should be an integral component of
national security. Universal access to healthcare in late 19th century
Europe was pushed by military generals following revelations of dramatic shortcomings
in the health status and education of children, adolescent and young male
population, which made large sections of them unfit for recruitment to the
armed forces. Healthcare and social security were pushed as ‘vehicle for
securing defence capability and military strengths.’ With diversification of
the concept of national security, to cover industrial, agricultural and R&D prowess as well as dynamism of
governance institutions, we have to see
how much emphasis the new government accords to this sector.
The biggest constraint for Prime
Minister Modi in pursuing his vision shall be an archaic civil service which
has often been accused of turning into ‘steel-cage’ from ‘steel-frame’. Most
advanced countries have moved to performance oriented, technical and specialised
civil service with a tough competition as well as incentives for leadership
roles and performance. India continues with a generalist civil service of 19th
century vintage with little emphasis on performance and specialisation. Any
meaningful change in this direction is not possible without a corresponding
reform in political parties and corporate sector. The two remain perennially wary
of a professional civil service with high level of integrity. Nevertheless, there
cannot be better opportunity to embark on a comprehensive governance reforms in
all these sectors in a manner that is least disruptive. A popular mass leader
like Modi has the stature and capacity to force a public debate and build a
consensus towards such reforms to chart a new direction for destiny of 1.3
billion people of India and beyond in an interdependent world.
(Originally Published in "Asian Affairs in Focus" Vol 02, Issue 11, with minor editions)
