In my comprehensive post on Bangladesh on Jan 02 on this very blog, I had stated- among other issues- that BNP's return to power through Feb 12 elections was a foregone conclusion. And so was appointment of Tarique Rehman as Prime Minister of Bangladesh.
In fact, the script was so clear and transparent that there was no space for any other possibility. The largest political party that had spearheaded liberation of Bangladesh and had attempted to re-shape the identity of that country through linguistic and cultural nationalist lexicon instead of anti-India Islamic radicalism, was expelled from the electoral process itself.
Prime Minister of India has congratulated Tarique Rahman on Platform X (formerly twitter) on the latter's electoral victory and expressed "support in his endeavour to fulfill aspirations of the people of Bangladesh".
Probably Indian Govt has no other option but to deal with whosoever is in power in Bangladesh. But it would be naive to expect same level of cooperation and support from BNP regime as what was available during Hasina era. This is notwithstanding her minor occasional deviations that included dabbling with Islamists and even China to possible discomfort of India.
I had written in my previous post about the background of BNP and its support base, it would be difficult for Tarique Rahman to maintain warm, friendly and collaborative ties with India. Unlike Jamaatis, he is not radical and many experts are assessing that once Awami League is out of political space of Bangladesh, differences are certian to crop up between BNP and Jamaat and that is the hope for India. But this issue is more complicated.
During 2021, soon after announcement of US withdrawal from Afghanistan, I had repeatedly assessed at PGurus and Loud Talk YouTube platforms as well as my piece on blog that Pakistani Military establishment and Taliban dispensation in Afghanistan were bound to fall apart. This was notwithstanding the fact that Taliban was a creation of Pakistani Military. What had driven this assessment was both the nature Taliban as an organisation as well as the association that they shared with Pakistani military, where mutual expectations varied significantly.
With Bangladesh, the context is quite different. One has to go much deeper to analyze internal complexities of Bangladeshis at this juncture as well as the entire context, including visible and invisible dimension of entire geopolitical and security environment around India and Bangladesh. Tarique is now a more suave, sophisticated and shrewd politician. Jamaat shall not be able to control him as he has a mind of his own. But it would be naive to expect him to act in the same way as Sheikh Hasina.
The very support base and composition of BNP and its links with Army cantonment is such that they cannot shun their anti-India orientation entirely. If Jamaat and other radical forces have peddled a hardline and radical version of Islam, BNP has always espoused a softer version of Islamism to create a distinct nationalist identity. This nationalist identity perceives its interests in conflict with India. This may not be as direct and as crude as that of Jamaat but shall remain the bedrock of their national outlook and strategy. Controversies in cricket or propaganda over activities of fringe Hindu zealots shall provide additional fuel to them. Sections of policy establishments in both West and China are likely to be on their side. This is also obvious in the manner in which with just 47% voting with large-scale irregularities and total elimination of the largest political party has been condoned by the Western election observers. Zero percent tariff for Bangladeshi garments in US is yet another indicator of strong support that the anti-Awami League Bangladeshi establishment enjoys in the West. In the context of extremely sophisticated capacity developed by China to engage even warring factions among afro-Asian nations, including India's neighbours is yet another cause of potential worry for India.
For example, China is able to engage nearly all key warring groups in Myanmar to ensure smooth access for China to REE reserves in that country and their export to China. Such capacity of China has been visible in most of Africa and Central Asia as well. In recent years, China has closely engaged not only Myanmar but also Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives and even Bangladesh.
In this context, a BNP dispensation shall like to maximize their economic and otherwise gains from India through overt diplomacy and soft talks, wherever possible. But it shall do its best to join other forces to create pressure points inside India and around India.
BNP always had better linkages in both the Western world as well as Pakistan. Large sections of their core supporters believe that their separation from Pakistan is done and dusted, and Pakistan no longer posed any direct threat to Bangladesh. Whereas India being a large neighbour posed more serious threat to India. Many among them consciously aspire to change demographic composition of bordering regions of India. Hence, they advocate that destiny of their nation must not be imprisoned with the past and they needed to move forward by building good association with Pakistan.
However, there must also be an appreciation of that Pakistan may not be able to help them in a way that India can do. Yet they may diversify their associations with China and the West and may not hesitate allowing use of their territory for purposes that may be detrimental to India's security or otherwise interests. The adversarial psyche and suspicion towards India demonstrated by Caretaker regime is likely to continue.
It will test the limits and imaginations of India's geopolitical and security strategists to deal with Bangladesh. However, the national security strategy is not confined to diplomacy and security alone. India's relative power asymmetry vis-a-vis China or its inability to effectively eradicate and tame Islamic radicalism or failure to build a robust and hi-tech driven competitive private sectors etc add to overall constraints in this direction.
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