Bangladesh appears at the cusp of far-reaching irreversible changes that may not necessarily good for the people of Bangladesh or this region. Democracy, peace, security, rule of law and especially accelerated economic progress, that it had experienced in recent years, appear increasingly improbable in foreseeable future. Current turmoil and uncertainty is likely to have a spill over impact on India.
INDIAN EAM AT FUENRAL OF KHALEDA ZIA
Amidst sustained attack and killing of Hindus in Bangladesh and continued provocations by the Caretaker regime, India displayed a warm and friendly gesture by sending the External Affairs Minister to attend the funeral of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. Media showed the EAM handing over a letter of condolence from Prime Minister Modi to son of deceased leader Mr Tarique Rahman who has recently returned to the country following 17 years of exile. Some critics of the govt have mis-interpreted the soft gesture as driven by pragmatism to deal with whosoever is in power in Bangladesh where multiple issues at stake also include a partisan interest like 25 year Power Purchase Agreement between an Indian corporate entity and local Power Development Corporation. But in death of any statesperson, including opponents, generosity and graciousness, irrespective of differences, is hallmark of the highest level of maturity, especially on part of a large democratic state.
CONSISTENT ANTI-INDIA POSITION OF KHALEDA ZIA
Khaleda Zia was known for her consistently strident anti-India position. She had opposed almost everything that could have fostered better India-Bangladesh ties. This included renewal of 1972 India-Bangladesh friendship Treaty, India's Farakka barrage project built in 1975 as well as India-Bangladesh land connectivity amongst multiple other issues. Yet she continued to receive attention of Indian Government and many of her party associates maintained good ties with India.
During her rule, Bangladesh had become a hotbed of Islamic terrorism and a major launchpad of anti-India organised crime, albeit with a degree of quintessential Bengali finesse and sophistication. Presence of a strong pro-India forces of Bengali cultural-linguistic nationalism, represented by Awami League and secularists, definitely acted as antidote cum deterrent to some extent but intensity of emotive anti-India and anti-Hindu Islamic identity, though significantly subterranean currents, have always remained formidable in Bangladesh or East Bengal.
GENSIS OF ANTI-INDIA POSITION OF BNP AND KHALEDA ZIA
One cannot fault Khaleda Zia or BNP alone for anti-India outlook and policies. Khaleda had inherited political legacy and support base of Islamic nationalist identity that her slain husband Zia ur Rahman, a former Martial Administrator turned President of Bangladesh, had re-created and nurtured. Rahman is considered as a key architect of Aug 15, 1975, coup in which the founder of Bangladesh, Sheikh Miujib, was assassinated and his elected government was overthrown.
Many knowledgeable experts on the matter believe that without backing of Pakistani deep state, and it’s the then patron, who was angered by liberation of Bangladesh and military victory of a Soviet leaning India, the 1975 coup in Bangladesh was impossible. Within weeks of the coup, Zia ur Rahman had taken over as Deputy Chief Martial Law Administrator to rise to the rank of Chief Martial Law Administrator within a year in. He eventually took over as the President of Bangladesh by April 1977.
The entire dynamics of these developments, involving lot of palace conspiracies, deceit and double dealing, remain shrouded in mystery. But Zia ur Rahman's Presidency was terminated again by such conspiracies only when he was assassinated in 1981 in what was perceived as internal feud within the Bangladesh Army.
Once Bangladesh was liberated, a re-unification with Pakistan was neither possible nor desirable either for Bengali Islamists or Pakistan. Crushing defeat in 1971 had destroyed will and capacity of Pakistan to even imagine something like this. They must also have been well aware of strong antipathy against Pakistan among Bengali masses. But smarting under that defeat, they were unwilling to reconcile with the reality. It is well known, how under the patronage of their patrons, they built an elaborate infrastructure for irregular and diffused covert war through subversion, crime and terrorism since then. Dhaka was probably one of the earliest grounds where these capacities were tested.
On the other hand, Bengali Islamists also knew that as independent state they had far more acceptability at home and huge leverage abroad. Any attempt to surrender the newly gained freedom might have generated all out revolt.
But agenda of the dispensation that grabbed power by force in 975 was crystal clear. Zia ur Rahman had used his grip over state power in Bangladesh to amalgamate and coalesce together all the so-called “Islamist nationalists” from Army as well as educated and rich urban Bengali Muslims, alongside Islamist radicals like Jamaat e Islami, to create a political and ideological support base for Bengali Islamic nationalism. The new edifice was something opposed to Bengal cultural nationalism represented by Awami League.
DEEP ROOTS OF ISLAMIC RADICALISM IN EAST PAKISTAN OR EAST BENGAL
East Bengal or East Pakistan or the current areas under Bangladesh were not alien to something like Islamic radicalism earlier. Some of the worst pre-partition riots on the subcontinent had taken place in Bengal. In 1941, Hindu population in current Bangladesh was around 28% which came down to 22% in 1951 from where it has come to less than 8% by 2022. In 19011 census (when Bengal had already been divided into East and West Bengal, and nearly 60% of the then East Bengal areas constitute the modern Bangladesh), the Hindu population of current territory of Bangladesh used to be around 40%.
Hence, Islamic radicalism had been a potent force in areas that constitute the current territory of Bangladesh prior to independence. Awami League led cultural nationalism that succeeded in liberating Bangladesh, was a huge development in the context of larger civilizational war waged on the subcontinent in the name of Islam. It sought to replace Islamic radicalism by Bengali cultural nationalism, scuttling the larger conspiracy of imperial forces who had envisioned to bog down one fourth of humanity inhabiting South Asia through menace of Islamic radicalism. It is a well-known reality that one of the super powers kept supporting Islamic radicals of the subcontinent, including Pakistani terrorists until 9/11/ attacks. It would have been naive in 1970s to assume that either a vanquished Pakistan or its patrons would accept rise of cultural nationalism in Bangladesh instead of Islamic radicalism which served their zero-sum geopolitical agenda.
Secular intellectuals of Bangladesh maintain that this is what explains favourable press to BNP in the West even in recent year, despite exposure of its open collusion with radical and terrorist elements in the region. Many experts, including ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina herself, have accused the opaque and unidentified elements from the Western world in toppling of Awami League Govt in August 2024.
As President of Bangladesh during 1977-81, Zia ur Rahman had granted amnesty to almost all the accused, especially the assassins of Bongo Bondhu and his family members. He had gone onto rehabilitate and accommodate the so-called collaborators and proxies of Pakistan Army in Bangladesh who had attacked and killed freedom fighters of the country. These included incumbents of Jamaat e Islami, including Al Badr and Al Shams, who were collectively called Razakaars. These forces had specifically targeted Bengali Hindus to fan Islamic sentiments and marginalise the Bengali linguistic and cultural identity. With the backing of Pak Army, they had succeeded in killing a very large number of patriotic Muslim Bengali fighters.
Pakistani deep state, despite backing of the most powerful super power at that point of time, had been comprehensively vanquished in regular conventional war. But it knew the emotive appeal of Islamic identity as well as the fact that it did not need majority in the Bangladesh to be on its side. It was possible to control entire state machinery, by overthrowing a popularly elected government, with a numerically smaller number of well-placed men in uniform. The task became far too easier if the military and violent radical groups were weaned on its side. This is what had happened in 1975. Bangladesh was robbed of a legitimate and popularly elected government. Its nascent democracy was destroyed. Its march towards composite humanism was reversed.
ROLE OF ZIA UR RAHMAN IN LIBERATION OF BANGLADESH
BNP Supporters claim that it was Zia ur Rahman who had announced liberation of Bangladesh on March 27, 1971 from a radio station. His voice had sent the newly liberated Bengalis into rapturous celebration even before the formal declaration of independence. But many Awami League leaders point out that Zia was only a major rank officer serving in undivided Pakistan Army. He had no major role in the freedom struggle. He was merely announcing the message of Bongo Bondhu Mujib Rahman that had also been announced on the preceding day by Mujib’s political associate M A Hannan.
But the announcement by Zia was significant because it confirmed that Bengali
officers of Pakistan Army had broken ranks with their Punjabi counterparts. Many secular intellectuals argue that the move was at best a tactical ploy by clever Bengali officers when fall of Pakistan in Bangladesh had
become imminent. Following independence, Sheikh Mujib never wanted to target these officers out
of generosity and noble spirit of freedom struggle. He wanted to protect an already fractured
societal and institutional cohesion of his newly liberated nation. Somehow, he was absolutely confident of his ability to carry together all in his new nation. But sadly, he was proven wrong and paid with his life.
BENGALI ISLAMIC NATIONALISM
But Zia ur Rahman and current BNP have perennially represented a component of Bangladesh Army and society who have prided in their unique Bengali Islamic identity. This appears a far more sophisticated and subtler version than Punjabi or other Islamist identities of Asia. But its anti-India and anti-Hindu overtones remain unmistakable. This has been consistently reflected in the evolutionary journey of BNP.
Since Awami League had significant support base among masses and it was always in a position to mobilize people on the streets, BNP was at a disadvantage. It had no record or experience of mass movement. It has largely been a party of urban elite, backed by indirect support from Islamists within the Bangladesh Army. It compensated absence of adequate footprints at grassroots level by coopting forces Jamaat to challenge nation-wide organisational presence of Awami League. Till date, Jamaat has enormous street prowess and committed following. With nearly 4 to 5 % of total vote base, it is always in a position to mobilise all its members on streets and unleash them to perpetrate such level of violence that intimidates almost entire citizenry.
INFLUENCE OF PAK MILITARY ESTABLISHMENT ON SECTIONS OF BD ARMY
A significant section of military and security force officers of Bangladesh have always shared a close nexus with Pakistan and even Western powers. There is a long history to it. It was not confined pre-1971 era associations between the two countries when the two were one nation with one common Army. Following 1975 coup and until 2008, when Sheikh Hasina returned to power through the fairest possible polls in the history of Bangladesh, Military exchanges between Pakistan-Bangladesh Armies helped forge closer associations.
A section of Bangladeshi former Generals has always perceived India as the biggest threat to their security by its sheer geographical proximity and size. Some also fancied privileges and powers enjoyed by their counterparts in Pakistan. But majority of them prefer to be professional soldiers. None serve a better example of professional soldiers than Moeen U Ahmed in 2007 who avoided all temptations of a direct takeover when Caretaker dispensation of Iajuddin backed by outgoing PM Khaleda Zia had collapsed. He had overseen preparation of fresh electoral rolls, elimination of bogus voters, removal of local ruffians, toughies and compromised civilian officers as well as all those, include Tarique Rahman, who could interfere with free and fair polls. December 2008 polls were probably the fairest election in the history of Bangladesh. It had seen return of Sheikh Hasina to power with a comprehensive majority and the General had quietly gone home on retirement.
Yet soon after her return to power, Hasina had
faced a precarious threat from some components of Bangladesh
Military in the form of BDR mutiny in 2009. Scores of soldiers were killed and there existed a serious threat to her life and personal security. She had handled the situation with exceptional
courage and grit to emerge stronger.
RAPPROCHMENT WITH PAKISTAN AS PRAGMATIC STRATEGY
The Islamist Bengali nationalists- both Generals and politicians have - have consistently advocated a rapprochement with Pakistan as a pragmatic nationalist strategy. There may be underhand and invisible dimension involving other extra regional powers as well. But on principle, they seemed to be driven by the assumption that physical distances with Pakistan, following independence, had eliminated the space for conflict with that country. Simultaneously, with help of Pakistan and its patrons and associates, they could access multiple opportunities for themselves as well as Bangladesh in both Western world and oil-rich Islamic nations. The entire outlook has to be appreciated in the context of prevailing geopolitical equations in the last quarter of 20th Century. On the other hand, a much larger India in the immediate neighborhood seemed to pose an existential threat to their security and sovereignty.
There has been an elaborate intellectual justification for the same in vernacular media and literature. Islamists like Maulana Bhashani had perennially advocated whole of North East India as lebensraum (natural habitat) for Bengalis Muslim. The total habitable landmass available in Bangladesh has been far too little. Hence, steady influx of illegal Bangladesh immigrants may have been part of this unwritten strategy alongside safe sanctuary and support that was offered to secessionist groups from North-East India. Many of these groups had shared a nexus with Pak ISI whose media exposure had surprised and shocked most observers.
During non-Awami League rule, Bangladesh Army was known for carrying out military exercises targeting India and indirectly referring it in somewhat derogatory language. Most Indian strategic experts never took it seriously. They maintained that Bangladesh Army had to justify its existence and India being the only major neighbour that posed a degree of threat to Bangladesh, their military exercises were geared against India.
However, a section of Bangladeshi security officers do play a role in internal political affairs. In one of my media interviews in 2023, I had mentioned about strong influence of Pakistan in sections of Bangladesh Army/security establishment. I had called for cultural nationalists to be careful about it. This was something well known even among Bangladeshi officers. I remember a famous interviewer asking a counter question from me and virtually dismissing my assessment.
Nevertheless, a high percentage of Bangladeshi soldiers still derive pride in their freedom struggle. Excesses committed by Pak Army to impose their linguistic and racial superiority remain in the average consciousness of Bangladesh. But the current caretaker regime's proximity to Pakistani military establishment has been more than visible. Besides, there seems a major attempt expel cultural nationalist elements from all the security forces of the country and induct a large number of incumbents with hardcore Islamic orientation and outlook and install them in key position in all security institutions. This is likely to seriously destroy the professional character of security forces of this country and eventually may be state and society.
BNP'S IMMINENT RETURN TO POWER
As Bangladesh braces towards the forthcoming polls scheduled on February 12th this year, BNP’s return to power and election of Tarique Rahman. who recently returned to the country following 17 years of self-imposed exile to evade a volley of legal cases, as the Prime Minister are foregone conclusions, unless there is some exceptional development. Elections have rarely been free, fair and inclusive in Bangladesh. In this context, call for inclusive elections by Tarique Rahman appears only a posturing. All key institutions of state have already been taken over by the current caretaker regime, which appears a proxy of Islamic nationalist forces spearheaded by BNP. The current dispensation has repeatedly confirmed that the biggest political party Awami League, which always enjoyed support base of almost 40% of the total electorate shall not be allowed to contest the forthcoming polls. Sadly, the entire world is keeping quiet on the same.
Rahman own track during his
mother’s regime in 2001-06 does not inspire much of a hope either on front of restoration of a stable democracy or building good ties with India. During that period, Rahman had gained an infamy for brazen interference in governance process, openly
insulting senior functionaries of the state, including the then Army Chief. His collusion with organised criminals,
radicals and their external Islamist patrons like Pakistan were well documented.
As a shrewd strategist, Rahman has been credited with scripting the downfall of Sheikh Hasina. He is believed to have harnessed the longstanding associations of BNP as well as Pakistani military establishment to unleash sustained propaganda to discredit Sheikh Hasina Govt in the West and mobilise support to topple the regime through street violence. Simultaneously, he kept alive the support base of BNP and Jamaat in Bangladesh even amidst all round attacks by the ruling dispensation.
Given the prevailing internal equations in Bangladesh, BNP and Jamaat are expected to do their best to eradicate Awami League both politically and ideologically.
ATTEMPTS TO CHANGE THE NARRATIVE ABOUT FREEDOM STRUGGLE
While BNP and radical forces like Jamaat on one hand Awami League and cultural nationalists on the other have always shared extreme hatred towards each other but for the first time in history of the country, there has been an attempt to change the very narrative about Sheikh Mujib led freedom struggle of Bangladesh.
The current caretaker dispensation, and the forces behind it, have stretched their disdain towards rule of law, democracy and minority rights to destroy even the legacy of the freedom struggle of the country. Early this year, they razed to the ground residence turned museum of “Bongo Bondhu” Sheikh Mujib at 32, Dhan Mondi in full presence of security forces who acted only as moot spectators.
They have systematically attacked every symbol of freedom struggle of Bangladesh and called for even dropping the current national anthem of the country penned by Rabindra Nath Tagore. People chanting “Joy Bangla”, the slogan that had united Bangladeshis in their freedom struggle, have been attacked. A narrative is being built to paint “Bongo Bondhu” Sheikh Mujib as fascist villain and power grabber and Zia ur Rahman, husband of Khaleda Zia as real liberator and saviour of Bangladesh.
SPATE OF RECENT VIOLENCE
On December 26, 2025, the spokesperson of India’s Ministry External Affairs quoted a figure of 2900 violent attacks against Hindus and other minorities. Knowledgeable elements within Bangladesh maintain that the actual figure may be in excess of 4000 as there is massive under reporting. The country has witnessed a frenzy of Islamist attacks throughout the nation. These are inadequately reported due to absence of media presence in many inaccessible remote places and undeclared media censor. Awami League activists have also been targeted and many are running for their lives. Muslims seeking to report or resist attacks against Hindus have been specifically intimidated.
‘The
Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (BHBUC) had reported 2,442
incidents of violence against religious and ethnic minorities between August 4,
2024, and June 30, 2025. These included murders, rapes, vandalism of places of
worship, forced evictions besides attacks on minorities. The report cites that
within the first fortnight of ouster of Hasina, 2,100 incidents violent
incidents had been reported between August 4 and August 20, 2024. These included
1,769 communal attacks.’ Some impartial Hindu NGO activists during private conversation on Jan 01, 2026, have placed the total figure of those killed during caretaker regime to something anywhere between 3000 to 12000. Simultaneously, they claim that over hundred thousand Awami League activists and supporters have been detained with figure of daily arrests touching three thousand even though many inconsequential among them have also been released. They maintain that prisons of the country are over crowded but lament hostility of global and Western NGOs and media.
Though state authorities have questioned such figure but there is no credible data available on total casualties and detentions. Ahmadiyyas, Buddhists, Christians, and indigenous peoples in the Chittagong Hill Tracts have also faced violence and discrimination. Homes, temples, and places of business have been destroyed, looted and vandalised. Desecration of Hindu idols have become routine. A minor sample of hate and intolerance towards free speech was manifest in burning down of independent media house like “Prothom Alo’’ that had been equally critical of Sheikh Hasina under her rule.
On lines of Pakistan, Blasphemy accusations have been levelled over private disputes and social media has been used to mobilise and trigger mob violence. Caretaker Govt is known for making too few arrests and it always seeks to downplay the scale of the violence while outwardly reiterating its commitment to protect minorities.
FORMER PM HASINA CANNOT ESCAPE THE BLAME
Sheikh Hasina cannot escape the
blame for the situation in which Bangladesh finds itself today. She blundered
on certain cardinal principles of statecraft and security even though her
administrative efficiency had pushed Bangladesh to unprecedented level of
economic growth, which was 6.38% annually during 2009-2023. This had significantly
bolstered per capita income of people. Simultaneously, Bangladesh had risen in HDI global
rankings from 147 in 2008 to 129 in 2024. Some argue that such output was still
sub-par compared to potential of that country. But anything comparable had eluded
Bangladesh on account of persistent turbulence or direct and indirect Islamist and
military rule since 1975 until 2008, with an intervening lackadaisical five-
year tenure of Hasina from 1996. Her supporters claim that 1996 tenure of Hasina was inconsequential due to stronger grip of her political opponents
on most key institutions of state. But since 2009, she had attempted to
systematically rid key institutions of BNP-Jamaat influence to eventually
trip somewhere.
Amongst charges of personal excesses,
cronyism, autocratic arrogance and brute manipulation of institutions to secure
electoral victories, especially in 2018 and Jan 2024 polls, Hasina and her
associates had failed to assess and anticipate a lot of issues. These include prowess of her rivals as well as
threats to her regime. They also miscalculated on wider acceptability and
sustainability of the instruments that she was using to retain power. She physically
eliminated many of her key rivals by engineering capital punishment to them
through judiciary. Imprisonment of political rivals before polls on questionable
grounds undermined sanctity of her electoral victories. Bangladesh needed high quality statesmanship to
dismantle the overall infrastructure of organised crime, radicalism and
institutionalized corruption that had always fed her political-ideological
opponents.
In between, she had also dabbled with Qoumi Madrassas to apparently wrest at least a component of support base of Jamaat and BNP. But the move backfired and many of the products of these very Qoumi Madrassas were at the forefront of student agitation that overthrew her regime. In course of my observations at the platform of a Kolkata based think tank last year, I had emphasized the constraints of existing political system at one level and lack of any credible opposition to Hasina within and outside the party. I have always argued that great statespersons must fade out after one or two tenures, and they must nurture a worthy protege. Probably this is too idealist to expect in the prevailing global environment.
Many external geopolitical factors were also to her disadvantage. But poor statesmanship and her inability to surround herself with right advisors had pushed her into an ivory tower where she got far too detached with reality. This engineered a number of miscalculated decisions and questionable activities on her part. Her underhand dealings with few questionable businessmen particularly tarnished her image. In the process, she squandered away a wonderful opportunity that fate had offered her to re-script the very destiny of the country for whose liberation her family had shed so much blood along side sacrifices of lives of thousands of Indian soldiers and at least half a million Bangladeshis (though Awami League has perennially claimed 3 million casualties in freedom struggle of Bangladesh).
Nevertheless, Sheikh Hasina has been a brave statesperson who attempted something extremely difficult. She lacked wise and courageous advisors who could dispassionately discuss issues with candor. Yet given the enormity of challenges she faced as Bangladeshi PM, she did extremely well on many fronts but failed miserably on many critical ones towards the end. I have highlighted these in my observations at platform of Tillotoma Foundation of Kolkata.
Her
failure should serve as a lesson for powerful statesmen all over the world. Luxuries
of normal human frailties and psychological weaknesses or favouritism may be
routine for entitlement driven politicians in stable polities.
But these are simply unaffordable for
statespersons saddled with such formidable threats and aspirations to transform the
plight of their people.
PRIORITIES FOR INDIA
Any instability and turmoil in this region amounts to a setback for India. Simultaneously, rise of forces of Islamic radicalism or those with anti-India inclinations is a cause of serious concern for India. India has to see issues in Bangladesh beyond security of minorities. It would be naive to expect the current oppressors of minorities to heed to appeals of Indian state. Hence, there has to be a serious introspection at one level even about existing capacities and strategies of Indian state. India also has to be aware of strategic and tactical goals of extra regional powers who have taken a renewed interests in the region. Independent media write ups suggest that they seem to be looking for instability and discord in this region and yet have strong institutional and otherwise capacities to engage warring groups whether in Myanmar or parts of Africa or Central Asia or other regions to ensure defence of their own interests. Cooks island and Chittagong port or Cox's Bazar have its own strategic importance but negative sentiments, beyond a certain threshold level, may benefit rent seeking class in Bangladesh but it will be disaster for average people as well as larger developmental and security objectives of Indian state. I shall soon be writing on this aspect at this or other platform.
